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October 30, 2009 - 11:40pm

The Batavian 2009 Election Survey Results

posted by Howard B. Owens in thebatavian, election.

Below are the results of the election survey taken of readers of The Batavian over the past three days.

Please keep in mind: 

  • This is somewhat experimental. We're curious how close we can get to accurately reflecting how the election will go. That question won't be answered until election night. But as a matter of transparency, we're releasing the results tonight (also, even while acknowledging the potential pitfalls of this survey, candidates are expressing an eagerness to know the results.
  • This is a non-scientific survey. Participants are self selected, which statisticians will tell you can skew results.
  • An online survey isn't beyond being gamed, or tricked, but I see no evidence of that taking place in this case.

All of that to say: You shouldn't let these results influence your voting decisions, from who to vote for or whether to show up at the polls. Treat this as a potentially interesting reflection of how readers of The Batavian are responding to the candidates, but not necessarily a prediction of what will happen on Election Day.

Two other notes. We are not randomly deleting responses as we previously said we would. We had to delete too many as it is because SOOO MANNNNY people didn't follow the instructions on the survey.

The most common reason we deleted surveys (and whole surveys were deleted, not just specific questions) was people voting in BOTH district elections for the County Legislature. The next most common reason, was saying you lived in the Town of Batavia or another town and then voting in Batavia races or on the charter question.

We have 165 completed surveys. We trashed at least 200 more for failure to follow the instructions and another 25 for stating not registered to vote and unlikely to vote (you see, those were trick questions). We also deleted five surveys with duplicate IP addresses.

We're also not displaying results for jurisdictions that had only one or two respondents.

Here's the results:

Very likely to vote: 149 (90%)

Batavia City Council - Council at Large  
Answer  
Marianne Clattenburg 49 (22%)  
Timothy E. Buckley 45 (21%)  
Frank C. Ferrando, Jr 44 (20%)  
Phillip J. Ricci 39 (18%)  
Sara J. Balbi 26 (12%)  
Julie Ann Wallace 15 (7%)

 

City of Batavia Charter Revision  
Yes 52 (64%)  
No 29 (36%)

 

Genesee County Legislator District 7 (Wards 1 & 6)  
Robert H. Radley 22 (59%)  
Rosemary Christian 15 (41%)

 

Genesee County Legislator District 8 (Wards 2 & 3)  
Christopher M. Charvella 17 (55%)  
Hollis D. Upson 14 (45%)  

 

Darien Town Clerk  
Alice E. Calmes 5 (56%)  
Linda P. Graber 4 (44%)

 

Darien Town Council (Vote for 2)  
Michael A. Plitt 7 (35%)  
Stephen J. Ferry 5 (25%)  
Christopher M. Nicastro 4 (20%)  
Charles J. Flagg 3 (15%)  
Jimmie E. Flaming 1 (5%)

 

Darien Town Council, unexpired term  
David D. Riker 7 (70%)  
Samuel E. Williams 3 (30%)

 

Le Roy Town Justice  
Answer  
Kermit Arrington 13 (65%)  
Darryl D. Sehm 7 (35%)

 

Le Roy Town Council (Pick 2)  
Thomas Stella 15 (58%)  
Christine M. Smith 8 (31%)  
Jay E. Whipple 3 (12%)

 

Le Roy Town Council, unexpired term  
Kelly J. Lathan 14 (67%)  
Jennifer AO Keys 7 (33%)

 

Stafford Town Council (Vote for 2)  
Ronald Panek 10 (38%)  
Donald L. Mullen 9 (35%)  
Michelle Mouery 7 (27%)  

 

Stafford Superintendent of Highways  
Answer  
Steven Boldt 13 (87%)  
James D. Pontillo 2 (13%)

 

Howard, Thank you for doing this! Even though there we quite a bit of results removed, I am still excited by what is there! It's great to see how close we are and that our message is making an impact! Thank you to everyone who took the time to do this and thank you for those who are supporting us! Please go out and vote on November 3rd! Have a Happy and Safe Halloween!!!
John Roach
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This poll was a nice idea. And when you look at how many people took the poll (including the 200 removed for errors), it had a VERY good turn out. GET OUT AND VOTE
Thomas Mooney
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Is it Sarah Burk-Balbi or just Sarah Balbi. for her last name ? Or is she just using the burk name to get votes ?
Bea McManis
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Posted by Thomas Mooney on November 2, 2009 - 7:06am Is it Sarah Burk-Balbi or just Sarah Balbi. for her last name ? Or is she just using the burk name to get votes ? The point? Many women use a hyphenated name. Sara Burk-Balbi sounds okay to me. She'll make a great addition to the city council.
John Roach
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Of course she is using "Burk" to get votes. But why not? The better question would be is it helping or hurting?
Peter O'Brien
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Deleting for duplicate IP's may be unfair. Chelsea and I occasionally view from the same computer and would therefore have the same IP. I have a question, has NY adopted the new e-voting machines for this election? If so look for law suits especially in elderly districts.
Thomas Mooney
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Bea , You are missing my concern . Sarah is advertising Burk-Balbi but what will it be listed on the ballot . This could be a problem for some who don't realize it's the same person . Many wowmen use hyphenated names ,but not many use both . John good point about helping or hurting her . I would say that it might hurt her because of the confusion that it might cause if her last name is listed as Balbi on the ballot .
John Roach
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I don't think the name will be too much of a problem on the ballot. I think her problem will be that people in the 1st ward will conect her to her father, who wants the sports complex at the end of North Street. If you don't like the sports complex, you might vote against her. If you like the sports complex, you might vote for her. It's a two edge sword for her in the 1st ward.
Bea McManis
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Posted by Thomas Mooney on November 2, 2009 - 8:50am I would say that it might hurt her because of the confusion that it might cause if her last name is listed as Balbi on the ballot . I would like to believe that the voters, in the City, are smart enough to recognize either Burk-Balbi or just Balbi. It is a non issue. Sara is a bright young star on the road to public service. Whether she is known as Sara Burk-Balbi or Sara Balbi, I know she will give it her all if elected.
Thomas Mooney
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John makes a great point about the athletic fields . I herd the athletic fields wern't going to be voted on at this poll . Can anyone confirm this ? Around here the last name Burk is a household name , but not Balbi .So I think it makes a difference Bea , I think people want to see one name being used for elections .Burk-balbi or Balbi , not both . What is her legal name? I do agree with you that she is a young star and would give it her all if elected .
Daniel Jones
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The Batavian should sponsor a scientific poll (random sampling) with WBTA for the next election.
John Roach
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There is no vote on the sports complex at this time. They still have to get funding from grants befoew they do anything else at this time.
Dave Murray
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Rose Mary Christian question: not sure what some points in her Daily news ad mean, someone help me here! "retire employees with over 2 years experience...for younger workers": I believe county workers have to be 55 and have 25 years of service (except for cops I believe). There is no way this could be done ie. age discrimination, union issues, costly buyouts..how could she do this? I thought North Street Rd extension was a school project...what does it have to do with the county legislature? "create more jobs to increase the county's revenue, by increasing sales tax" what the heck does this mean? What unnecessary spending is she looking to eliminate? Are smoking issues county issues? Her had seems to be all over the place and poorly written, and a bit confusing. A Charvella question: he wants county legislation for local contracts to go only to local vendors...I am sure state law prevents this. Chris, answer please? Thanks, waiting for replys....go out and vote!
Chris Charvella
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I caught this one a little late Dave but I'm happy to clarify for you. It is of the utmost importance that all qualified local contractors are notified of bid opportunities in the County. It is also imperative that they are notified in timely enough fashion for them to bid competitively. This has not happened in the past. Of course contracts cannot be guranteed to local contractors, but we can do our level best to give them a shot. I hope that helps.
John Roach
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Dave, I didn't see the ad, but the answer to the sports complex is that while it is a School District project, they need the City Council to apply for a grant. They also need the Town of Batavia and I believe the County to apply also. That's how it became a "city" issue.
Chris Charvella
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That's correct John, the North street complex would require the County to apply for a grant as well.

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