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May 20, 2011 - 7:42am

Davis campaign claims its own poll shows Corwin falling to third

posted by Howard B. Owens in Jack Davis, NY-26, Jane Corwin, kathy hochul.

The Jack Davis campaign is claiming that their own polling numbers show Kathy Hochul ahead in the NY-26 special election race with Jane Corwin coming in a distant third.

In the words of the Davis campaign press release, "it appears support for Jane Corwin is collapsing."

The Davis campaign claims that Corwin's numbers have dropped to 17 percent, with Hochul polling 44 percent. Davis, in the Davis poll, is at 27 percent.

According to the press release, 4,602 "frequent voters" were surveyed. The poll was conducted between May 18 and May 19.

Seventeen percent were undecided.

From the press release:

“It’s clear that if conservatives, Republicans and Tea Party patriots want to keep Kathy Hochul, a Nancy Pelosi Democrat, from representing this district, they must vote for Jack Davis,” said Jack Davis campaign manager Curtis Ellis.

Late last night, I emailed both the Corwin and Hochul campaigns for a response.

Fabien Levy, with Kathy Hochul, replied but has not provided a response for publication yet and we haven't heard from Matthew Harakal with Jane Corwin's campaign at all. This post will be updated with any responses.

UPDATE 8:16 a.m.: Statement from Levy: "Every poll shows Kathy Hochul garnering the support of more and more voters in the 26th District. Voters here know Kathy is the only candidate in this race fighting to protect both Social Security and Medicare, which is why they are running away from her two conservatives opponents."

Jeff Allen
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I wonder how Ian Murphy and I did in the poll.
Bea McManis
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Did anyone catch Rachel Maddow's show last night. She reduced the Corwin campaign to a lesson on how NOT to run a campaign. She ran the robo call by West where he promises that Corwin will 'fight' to keep medicare. Then she showed the tape of West telling his own constituents that he will 'take his hands off of medicare when medicare is gone". It was noted that the Republicans didn't need to spend one penny in the 26th campaign because it was a RED district, a shoo in for Corwin. Instead, the amount of money spent by the Republicans, Rove, and PACs now totals over a million dollars. Davis, of course, was the spoiler for Corwin. Not as much of a spoiler before the incident in Rochester...an incident incited by the Corwin campaign twenty-somethings. Kathy Hochul ran a good campaign. Her organization has worked hard getting her message to the public. She is for the small business person (that is what got her into politics in the first place - her mother is a small business owner). She has, from day one, made it known that she will really 'fight' to save medicare for today's seniors and for the next generation. The deficit is mentioned wherever she speaks and she speaks of changes that have to be made. Kathy has talked issues. That is what the public wanted to hear. The Corwin campaign chose to keep issues as far away as possible. They decided, instead, to go for the jugular. Corwin speaks of Pelosi as if she has been here campaigning with Kathy on a daily basis. Nothing is further from the truth. I find it laughable that Corwin would bring up Pelosi, when she had the Speaker of the House in Buffalo raising money for her. She has Karl Rove and his super pac financing ads for her.
Daniel Jones
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When I was at Canisius I used to participate in C-Block, which was the student cheering section. Whenever we were so far ahead that the other section went silent instead of taunting us, we would taunt them with a chant of "Why so quiet?". So, Jane Corwin, why so quiet?
Ed Gentner
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Kudos to Hochul, but don't order the new office furniture yet. NY-26 is still a very red ditrict and with collapsing numbers for Jane Corwin due to what has to be the most inept campaign in recent memory for any office in this part of the state, it's time for voters who want a change to compare and contrast what Jack Davis brings to the table on the issues of jobs and trade. Jack Davis has proven himself to be the only candidate who will be an independent voice for the district and has a real plan that addresses the issue of job creation that will actually reduce the national debt and restore the solvency of Medicare and Social Security without drastic cuts in service to those who rely on the wide range of programs both the Democrats and Republicans have proposed.
Lisa Falkowski
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I had a pleasure of listening to these candidates speak earlier this week. I think it would be in there best interest to stop mud slinging, concentrate on issues, and no need to play down one another based on their standings. We can all see how the polls play out. Stop patting yourself on the back prematurely. It's not done until it's done.
Bea McManis
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Lisa, which candidates are you accusing of mud slinging? Could you give examples?
JoAnne Rock
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Jack Davis has no plans. He has platitudes. From his website: "In the coming weeks Jack Davis will be releasing a series of white papers on the issues that affect Western New York." The above statement has been on his website for a while now. I've been watching and waiting for his white papers, but none have been released yet. What is he waiting for?
Ken Herrmann
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You mean the little rich girl has found that many people don't like her duplicity, FOX News tactics, and contradictions attractive? They like Davis trying again to buy a Congressional seat?
Jeff Allen
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100% no mudslinging, lying, shenanigans, outside money guarantee: Write-in Jeff Allen on Tuesday.
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Posted by Daniel Jones on May 20, 2011 - 8:40am When I was at Canisius I used to participate in C-Block, which was the student cheering section. Whenever we were so far ahead that the other section went silent instead of taunting us, we would taunt them with a chant of "Why so quiet?". So, Jane Corwin, why so quiet? I had to laugh at this. When I worked for Liveworld, we would attend softball games between the different dot.com companies. We were a gregarious bunch led by employees who were cheerleaders in high school and college. They would come to the games prepared with signs, cheers, whistles and noise makers, pom poms, songs and anything else we needed to cheer our team along (a team that included one poor soul from India who knew how to play Cricket, but never did grasp the concept of running to the base WITHOUT the bat). Every once in a while a team would show up with no one to support them. The CEO of our company found this rather disturbing. He would divide our group in half and send half over to the opposing bleacher section to cheer for that team. It boosted their team's morale but more important it put a human face on the CEO and displayed the corporate culture that he worked so hard to cultivate. Good politics and good campaigns can do the same thing. There are obvious differences in idealogy and certainly differences in goals and objectives by each candidate. In the end, when the election is over, we all have to occupy the same space on this green earth. The negativity that bombards us leaves scars that are difficult to heal. I wonder if Corwin ever consider this?
C. M. Barons
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Calling Kathy Hochul a "Nancy Pelosi Democrat" is as flimsy as calling himself a Pelosi Democrat. Davis seems to forget that when he ran for congress in 2008 as a Democrat, Pelosi was top dog. Is he that forgetful or too full of himself to recognize the inconsistency? According to the NRCC (first and last time I'll cite the NRCC): “...Jack Davis is...a Democrat,” said NRCC Communications Director Paul Lindsay. “He’s attempting to fool Western New York, but it’s clear that Democrat Jack Davis is a true Nancy Pelosi liberal...” Davis is wielding a double-edge sword when accusing others of being Pelosi-minions.
Lorie Longhany
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The Corwin campaign is a pack of liars. Here they go again. http://tpmdc.talkingpointsmemo.com/2011/05/paper-claims-chamber-of-comme...
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Here a Pelosi, there a Pelosi, everywhere a Pelosi...
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WKBW reports: "Jane Corwin is hot on the campaign trail for the 26th Congressional seat, however a commercial for her campaign is not sitting well with a local newspaper. The newest ad shows a quote for the Tonawanda News, making it seem like the paper is endorsing Corwin. According to the paper, that is not the case. The editor of the paper wants the ad pulled from the air." http://www.wkbw.com/home/ton-news-add-122292839.html Brandon, here is the 'tribal' thing in action. No matter what is reported about Corwin, the GOP base in the 26 will support whatever comes out of that campaign.
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Jack Davis is a registered Republican, it's a matter of public record citations from the NRCC a Republican committee's PR flak is just more BS from the GOP to try to shift the focus from Corwin's campaign which has proven that their candidate selected by the Erie County GOP committee and forced on the other GOP chairs bumping morequalified candidates out. Corwin has run a inept campaign that is stunning in its conduct and lack of regard for the truth in its relentless attacks on Kathy Hochul and Jack Davis, the only surprise is that she has left Ian Murphy alone. Murphy given the performance of Corwin's campaign will most lkely be the subject of a least one Corwin attack ad in an effort to leave no lie untold, no smear left unsaid....
Jeff Allen
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I have neither attacked nor been attacked by any of the other candidates. Could be because none of them know me, let's introduce them to me on Tuesday. Write-in Jeff Allen
Lorie Longhany
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I don't know Bea. I always want to believe that reasonable people, no matter what their affiliation, will see the Corwin camp for what they are -- liars, misrepresenting this entire campaign. If this was in reverse, I would be at the very least, silent and my vote would be going elsewhere.
C. M. Barons
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Edmund, regardless of Jack's affiliation (or where you or I place him on the political spectrum), he ran as a Democrat three-times: 2004, 2006 and 2008; and now as a Tea Party candidate. Desperation and dollars aside, I don't recall him ever running as a Republican.
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He ran as a Democrat in 2004 after being given the bum's rush out of a REPUBLICAN fundraiser in 2003 that he paid several thousand dollars for a table and requsted a meeting with VP Dick Cheney to discuss trade issues, the Democrats him on the line because he was self-financing and they could not find another candidate, it was a repeat in 2006 the Democrats could not find another candidate. At the same time the Democratic party chairs were not pleased that Jack Davis was no great fan of Hillary Clinto and was quite open about that both in public as well as privately, in 2008 the Democrats went after the open seat because Davis came within 2 points of Tom Reynolds and saw an opportunity pushing other candidtes into a primary that resulted in Alice Kryzan running on the Democratic line and Chris Lee winning the election. Right after Jack Davis registered as a Republican, the biggest drawback for Jack Davis as a candidate for either party is he has been and remains truly independent and has had no hesitation to tell the chairs of both parties what he thinks of them and the leadership in general, that independence sets Davis apart.
Jeff Allen
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Each party has it's own set of core principles, when you switch parties just to position yourself in an election, on what principles do you stand? I am a lifelong Republican, as the party has in recent years started to abandon some of those core foundations, I have to consider my future affiliation. However, my core principles have not changed and jumping parties to ride a wave is not standing on anything. I understand political maneuvering, but we are moving toward centrist versions of both major parties and that is why we have an entrenched establishment that too often morphs well intentioned people into party puppets once they are elected.
C. M. Barons
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Edmund, if Jack Davis is so independent, why must he calibrate his image by polarizing the other candidates? He's paraded his dog and pony show across WNY for almost a decade, and never as an independent. He has made it clear what he doesn't like while failing to suggest what he does like- notably (not) offering any plan to fix the deficiencies he exploits. He has finally landed a role in a party which he seems to resonate with, yet he's still carping at Democrats and Republicans as to ancient injuries and slights. Jack Davis hasn't offered the voters of WNY anything more than a peg to hang grievances on. We want a leader to guide us out of an economic miasma, and he has nothing to offer but a crying towel. If you go to Jack's website and click on 'Issues,' you see an unmet promise that has stagnated for weeks: "In the coming weeks Jack Davis will be releasing a series of white papers on the issues that affect Western New York." When does he plan to release these 'white papers?' ...Next Christmas?
C. M. Barons
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...And while we're on the subject, who scheduled this election three days after the world is supposed to come to an end?
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It would make much more sense for Davis to claim independence if he was actually not affiliated with a party. The current record is that he is a registered Republican and plans to caucus with Republicans if elected. Sounds like a Republican to me.
Ed Gentner
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C.M., Jack davis has offered solutions starting with an end to the NAFTA, CAFTA and other unbalanced trade agreements that have caused sustantial damage to American working people and a lowering of our standard of living. He has proposed ending preferential tax treatment of corporations that move operations offshore and sell back to consumers here at artificially low prices while keeping the profits offshore in tax havens. Put what Davis has proposed into practice along with tax incentives to invest in American industry and the problem of high unemployment along with revenue shortfalls self correct. His opposition to the draconian cuts in social programs is a part of the record as well as suggesting cuts in military spending as well as a curb on foriegn aid. If this is not to your liking then vote for one of the other candidates but don't try to distort his record of opposition or the solutions he is on record proposing while excusing the other candidates that simply offer more of the same to maintain the status quo, look around it's time for a change in the way we do things and it starts with electing leaders rather than followers, Jack Davis is a leader.
C. M. Barons
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...Okay, so Jack is going to relieve this country of NAFTA, CAFTA and any other FTAs in the works. After successfully alienating himself from both Democrats and Republicans, who will he enlist among the 434 other members of Congress to assemble a voting majority? Currently there are no independents serving in Congress. He can't hobnob with the minority leader after using her name to bash Hochul. I'm sure (SIC) Speaker John Boner won't be rushing to Jack's side while the Erie County GOP licks its wounds. If he has any money left, maybe he can buy some friends.
Ed Gentner
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C.M., first there are independents, in the Bernie Sanders served in the house for a generation as an independent and now is an independent in the Senate and there is Joe Lieberman in the Senate, two members who have been very effective at shaping the national debate. Second and more to the point in order to have change there has to be a starting point, Jack Davis represents that starting point. In our area one only has to take a short drive to find abandoned industrial sites of corporations large and small that have moved, first to states that lowered the floor for wages and offered tax breaks then to China, India, Mexico, Taiwan, the list gets longer by the day. A prime example is the Walmart success of capturing market share with it's early campaign of the smiling face emblazoned with the made in the U.S.A. label to lure people in by low prices. Little did the buying public realize that the Walmart agenda included a long term plan of investment in foriegn countries to manufacture the goods on its shelves from China, Pakistan, India, Mexico. Walk into any of their stores and find five clothing items made in America, socks, underwear, shoes, shirts, jackets, all of which where manufactured here in America a generation ago with many of those items here in the NY-26. It didn't stop with clothing, it moved up the consumer ladder to appliances big and small, photgraphic equipment, machinary, autombiles and the parts that go into them. Jack Davis has made a crusade of bringing back industry by exposing the trade and industrial policies that have greatly contributed to the decline that is in evidence at every turn in the district. A seat in the House will give Jack's voice amplification far greater than it has now and that will effect change, a small change perhaps but change never the less. I'm voting for change, Jack Davis is the voice of that change.
kevin kretschmer
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Jack Davis, or Jane Corwin, or even Kathy Hochul for that matter will be a voice - for 18 months.
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So why is he a Republican? It would be a simple matter to change his registration to Blank. And why has he stated that he would caucus with the Republicans?
C. M. Barons
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I stand corrected (sort of)... There are currently no independents serving in the House of Representatives. Senator Joe Lieberman just announced his retirement, so Jack will have to snuggle-up to him REALLY quick. Senator Bernie Sanders from Vermont is a self-proclaimed socialist. Even if still in the House, Jack and he would be unlikely cohorts. Assuming Jack caucuses with Republicans; Bernie caucuses with the Democrats.
Ed Gentner
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Members caucus with one of the two parties even if they are independent. Jack Davis has been treated with vitriol by both parties locally and has gotten considerably more heat from Democrats who gladly took and used his money and then showed him the door....I don't count on Jack Davis being any less independent caucusing with the Republicans or any less irratating to the leadership by speaking out and refusing to parrot the party line.
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If he's as independent as he says he is why would he caucus with any party? There's no rule that says he has to.
Ed Gentner
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While there is no specific rule, commitee assinments are made by the respective party leaders in each house which makes assignment impossible by virtue of the assigment process. Having the party leaders make the assignments in what is primaraly a two party legislature provides a stucture to the body and provides an orderly process that comports with the rules for debate and moving legislation from proposal to law. Without rules to frame the debates or make comittee assignments it would be total chaos and arguably even less would be accomplished than is now.
bud prevost
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Robo call just now. Governor Christie, NJ. Corwin campaign is pulling out the big guns. Tell you what, if HE was running, I know who I'd vote for. Still undecided on tomorrow.
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Just got back from voting. Now, it is the waiting game.
Jeremiah Pedro
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I thought voting went tomorrow?
Bea McManis
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I can't vote tomorrow. Had to do it today :)
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You had me thinking I lost a day Bea.

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