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Today's Poll: If the election were held today in the NY-26, who would you vote for?

By Howard B. Owens
Howard B. Owens

It should be noted that Hochul was trailing Corwin by a good margin.

Within a 30 minute time, Hochul overtook Corwin. That's not normal. That big of a swing that quickly just doesn't normally happen in our polls.

There's an irregularity here, but I'm not sure of the cause. Since I no longer have a paid account with Poll Daddy, I can't do an IP address look up to check for multiple votes. I find no evidence through various search of an outside site urging votes for Hochul.

Mar 21, 2011, 1:06pm Permalink
John Roach

Hope they do this poll again in about 30 days.

Hochul might be out-polling registration now, but we don't know if it a "bump" due to her being the new candidate.

Bellavia being behind Davis is not a surprise since Bellavia still does not have high name recognition compared to a guy who has already run numerous times.

Mar 21, 2011, 1:10pm Permalink
Chris Charvella

I can't wait for Corwin's army of lawyers to descend on Albany tommorow for petition challenges. Davis said on Facebook that he submitted 12,0000 signatures. Knowing Davis, he probably got all of them outside a grocery store in Pennsylvania.

Mar 21, 2011, 1:59pm Permalink
John Roach

Bea,
You should be use to being wrong by now. I voted for Bellavia.

As for pulling for Corwin, even you should know that usually when a new person is nominated they get a bump in polls. That's why I'd like to see one in about 30 days.

Mar 21, 2011, 2:15pm Permalink
Tim Howe

The most disturbing thing about that poll has nothing to do with how many votes the reps or dems received, its the 74 "I wont vote's" Grrrrrrrrr

Mar 21, 2011, 4:07pm Permalink
Jeff Allen

A conservative vote for anybody but Bellavia is compromising the platform in order to gain the seat, I'm not doing it. Sending in my petition sheet for David with a bunch of Conservatives who agree.

Mar 21, 2011, 4:43pm Permalink
bud prevost

Speaking of Davis, there were several gentlemen collecting signatures for him in Leroy, on St Patty's day. As I was walking past the Eagle, on my way to school to get the kids, he asked me to sign a petition for Jack Davis. I politely declined. I was asked by a second guy in front of the library, declined, then was asked twice more as I walked west back on Main St, by the first guy. I think he was drunk.

Mar 21, 2011, 6:02pm Permalink
Howard B. Owens

There's lots of ways to look at Democrats pushing people to the site to vote on the poll.

One is: Hey, great for traffic.

Another is, distorts the vote.

The easy answer to that, a Republican post to FB.

On my previous not about irregularities, I was more interested in seeing if a predominately and heavily followed Democrat site was pushing people to the site, especially out-of-the-area people.

This poll isn't scientific.

No one post on FB is going to have as much of an impact as a post on one of the big name Democratic (or Republican) blogs.

Mar 21, 2011, 6:59pm Permalink
Lorie Longhany

John, I'm sure that you understand that campaigns are about buzz, especially in such a condensed election season. I'm proud of our Democratic candidate and I'm proud to promote her and I'm going to keep promoting her until May 24th. I've put up quite a few links since Saturday so that maybe a few of my friends will take a look and want to learn more about her and possibly vote for her in May. I'm probably driving just as many of my Republican and Conservative friends to come here to vote for Corwin, Davis, or Bellavia.

And actually John, most people don't even pay attention and are waiting for Charlie Sheen to act up again or waiting to vote for their favorite American Idol. There's no Democratic conspiracy here, as much as you would like to think there is. You should promote your favorite candidate. I would hit the "like" button no matter who it was.

Mar 21, 2011, 8:43pm Permalink
Charlie Mallow

Kathy is very popular in Erie county. She's also a very nice lady and no push over. That mudslinging Corwin better have deep pockets like her brother, Crazy Jack.

Mar 21, 2011, 9:28pm Permalink
Lorie Longhany

You're right Charlie. Kathy Hochul is a political rock star. I don't know how true this is because I haven't done a search of the Erie County results, but someone told me when she won by 80% last November that she won every town in Erie County. That's a lot of cross over appeal. Some of those towns are just as conservative as Genesee County.

Mar 21, 2011, 9:51pm Permalink
Bea McManis

"Jane Corwin
WBEN currently has a poll on their website asking who you will support for the 26th Congressional District. Can you visit www.wben.com and cast your vote of support? Thanks!"

Gee, do you think she was driving people to the wben site?

Mar 21, 2011, 10:34pm Permalink
Bea McManis

As of 10:43pm
WBEN
Who would get your vote in the 26th Congressional special election?
David Bellavia 121 Votes ( 6% )
Jane Corwin 811 Votes ( 41% )
Jack Davis 92 Votes ( 5% )
Kathy Hochul 877 Votes ( 45% )
Other 62 Votes ( 3% )
Total Votes: 1963

TheBatavian:
If the election were held today in the NY-26, who would you vote for?
Jane Corwin 26.43% (226 votes)
Kathy Hochul 29.01% (248 votes)
Ian Murphy 0.47% (4 votes)
David Bellavia 10.29% (88 votes)
Jack Davis 8.89% (76 votes)
Undecided 13.45% (115 votes)
I won't vote 11.46% (98 votes)
Total Votes: 855

Mar 21, 2011, 10:53pm Permalink
John Roach

Chris,
Yes. When either side, or in this case, both sides, do it, it gives even more unreliable results. Like Howard said, this is not a scientific poll already. These party efforts make it even less so.

Mar 22, 2011, 7:44am Permalink
Bea McManis

John,
Did you troll the Republican site too or just the Democrat site on FB? You only reported that people were talking about it on the Democrat site.
Why would it make it less reliable than knocking on doors and asking for support. It is an electronic age. The polls are generated on a website. It may not be scientific, but it certainly is a mirror on the day.
By the way, I looked back to four weeks ago and still can't find where I made Corwin's economic status an issue..or called her evil for her good fortune.

Mar 22, 2011, 7:52am Permalink
Lorie Longhany

Bea, it actually isn't on our public committee facebook page. I put up a link for my friends on my private FB page.

I guess John thinks that I should stop talking to friends on FB about this race. Maybe he thinks we should hide our candidate under a rock until the election is over. I told him he could unfriend me if my content about Kathy Hochul bothers him.

And Chris is right. Both sides drive people to opinion polls. In this case while Kathy Hochul was out doing interviews, answering tough questions and talking about her record and the issues, Jane was asking people to vote for her on facebook.

Mar 22, 2011, 8:43am Permalink
Bea McManis

I think he is whistling in the dark, trying to start something that isn't there.

John went to bed on 3/20 and saw one poll up.
Then he went to the Democrat site sometime on 3/21 and after supper on 3/21 announced that they are requesting votes.
Corwin was asking long before that. Why not announce that both sites were asking for support?

Posted by John Roach on March 21, 2011 - 6:17pm
The Democrats have a Facebook request for votes now.

Copied at 8:15am Tuesday 3/22 - Note she put this up 23 hours ago. So at 9:15am yesterday morning this notice was up.
Jane Corwin
WBEN currently has a poll on their website asking who you will support for the 26th Congressional District. Can you visit www.wben.com and cast your vote of support? Thanks!
23 hours ago · View Feedback (8)Hide Feedback (8) ·

Mar 22, 2011, 10:08am Permalink
Chris Charvella

One other thing I noticed is that Corwin seemed to ignore the poll here on The Batavian. Her communications director has already made a misstep or two and ignoring the large Republican base out here could be another one. I have a feeling that Genesee County is going to be Bellavia territory.

Conservatives out here, at least the ones that regularly post on this site, have been begging for an independent conservative candidate for as long as I can remember. I don't agree with Bellavia's politics, but I get the feeling he's a man who stands on his principles. That's going to go a long way in the rural areas of the district.

Mar 22, 2011, 9:33am Permalink
bud prevost

Chris, is it the cut in spending, or is it the no new taxes that you don't agree with? An independent would be fantastic, but you and I both know that the deep pockets are going to win. With that being said, "Bellavia for Congress".

Mar 22, 2011, 9:57am Permalink
John Roach

Bea,
I told you, I didn't see the Corwin site. But that's not the point is it? The point is that both sides were trying to do it.

And try hard to remember, I am not supporting Corwin.

Mar 22, 2011, 10:34am Permalink

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