"If Paulson was taken aback by the ways of Washington, he was just as surprised at how the crisis in the subprime-mortgage market became, by the fall of 2008, a global economic meltdown. He told me repeatedly that he had always known that, because the country had gone eight years without a major financial shock, “the next shock we had was going to really stress the modern financial system.” He was certainly aware, and frequently mentioned, that the subprime-mortgage problem had the potential to spread. He recalled telling President Bush that “there’s a dry forest, and we don’t know what’s going to ignite the fire or set the spark,” but suspected that housing might be it. During a conversation late in his tenure, Paulson said he believed that he and Ben Bernanke, the chairman of the Federal Reserve Board, “were ahead of a lot of people in understanding how serious” the gathering economic crisis was. But, he added, “it was always bigger and more systemic even than I had for a good while anticipated it to be, or expected it to be.” At another point, he said simply, “We’ve been late on everything.”