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Those who knew her and those who didn't have been hearing more and more about Alice Kryzan, the unexpected victor in the Democratic primary race for the 26th Congressional District. Jack Davis had the name recognition and the spending spree. Jon Powers had the adulation of party bigwigs and union bosses. But in the end, it was the semi-unknown who won over the hearts and minds... or at least she got the most lever pulls in the voting booths.

Since that victory, dubbed a "shocking upset" by more than one news affiliate, everyone has been racing to the press, the keyboard and the tube to get in their theories of how and why it happened, what it means for Kryzan and what it means for Powers and Davis. We ran a story earlier this morning that claimed not that Kryzan won because of this or that, but that Powers lost because of this or that.

A story that ran today in the Buffalo News pins the upset victory on the effect produced by a single television ad. Here's that ad:

What do you think? Is that enough to tip the scales?

Buffalo News reporter Robert J. McCarthy conjectures that "Alice who?" was "languishing" only a few weeks prior to the primary. Then magic happened...

That’s when the candidate — also known as Alice J. Kryzan— rolled out a television spot that just about everyone credits with capturing the Democratic nomination for the Amherst environmental attorney in the 26th Congressional District.

“It did the trick of bringing attention to the campaign,” said Kryzan campaign manager Anne Robinson Wadsworth.

Rarely has one political spot — produced by Adelstein & Liston of Chicago — made such an impression on local voters. But the scene of a boyish fellow resembling the 30-year-old Powers wrestling in the park with an old man who looks like the 75-year-old Davis seems to have resonated.

It all allowed Kryzan, 60, to appear on-screen and contend that “fighting will not create jobs, fix health care or change our energy policy.” That’s when she looks back at the scuffle actually filmed in a Chicago park and adds in a now-famous aside: “Boys, take it somewhere else.”

According to several observers, Kryzan’s campaign began to pick up after voters identified her as an alternative to her better- known opponents. Former Erie County Republican Chairman Robert E. Davis, who is now a political media consultant, said it ranks among the best he has ever seen because it offered “the ‘same old/same old’ or me.”

How much of a role can a single television ad play in an election? Were you convinced by it? Do you think most folks had already made up their mind by that point?