Stories from

Christopher M. Oliveras, 25, of Lockport Road, Oakfield, is charged with DWI, driving with a BAC of .08 or greater, driving while ability impaired by drugs, unlawful possession of marijuana, failure to obey traffic control devices, and tinted windows. Oliveras was arrested in the City of Tonawanda by Tonawanda PD, at 1:30 a.m., Sunday. Earlier, he was stopped for allegedly driving the wrong way down a one-way street. At that time he was told to park the vehicle. Later in the evening, officers stopped the vehicle again and Oliveras was found to be the driver. Oliveras reportedly told officers, "I did park for a little while." He also reportedly said, "I was drinking Budweisers and smoking marijuana." A container of marijuana was allegedly found in the center console. He allegedly blew a BAC of .10. Bail was set at $250.

Rebecca Ann Edwards, 23, of Kibbe Avenue, Batavia, is charged with grand larceny, 3rd. Edwards is accused of stealing property with a value in excess of $3,000 from the 48 Deli Express in Batavia.

Students from Elba's kindergarten class took a field trip today to the Strong National Museum of Play in Rochester. The trip was paid for by the Salvaterra family in remembrance of their son, Brayden Salvaterra, as an expression of gratitude and thanks to the Elba School District, the Elba community and surrounding community, for the support and contributions made to the family in Brayden's honor.

Brayden passed away unexpectedly Jan. 23. Many donations were made to Brayden's memorial and this is the first event paid for by the memorial.

Photos and info submitted by Kristi Bennetti.

A generator has reportedly caused a shed fire at 7814 Sand Hill Road, on the Tonawanda Indian Reservation.

That's near on Higher Ground Smoke Shop.

Alabama fire along with one engine each from Pembroke and Indian Falls dispatched.

UPDATE 11:49 a.m.: Pembroke and Indian Falls can stand by in quarters.

Pavilion is hosting a community workshop to discuss its upcoming comprehensive plan this Wednesday from 6 to 8 p.m. at the Town Hall.

The Comprehensive Plan Steering Committee will lead a community discussion and present a look at the community's future during the workshop.

Light refreshments will be served.

Ground Force Fights hosted its second mixed martial arts tournament at Quality Inn & Suites on Saturday night.

Here are the results of the fights:

• Jeremy Stopa vs. Dave Scerbo -- submission grappling match -- draw at the end of 10-minute match
• Jim Perl defeated John Gearhart round one, submission due to strikes
• Nolan Brant defeated Mike Taylor, :57 round one, TKO/ref stoppage
• Eric Bonner defeated Shawn Henderson, round two, referee stoppage due to strikes
• Ben Horton defeated Jesse Neal, round two, TKO/ref stoppage
• DaJuan Robinson defeated Sequoyah Sethi, round one TKO
• Matt Norstrand defeated Pete Flanagan, ref stoppage -- guillotine choke
• Matvei Skvortsov defeated Corey Lauth, round one, ref stoppage -- guillotine choke
• Jillian Decoursey defeated Emme Weber by unanimous decision

Photos by Richie Casado.

Pete Flanagan, of Batavia, throws a punch during his match against Matt Norstrand.

Emme Weber vs. Jillian Decoursey.

Matt Norstrand, of Le Roy, won the title at 185 pounds.

The Farm Economy

This is part four of an eight-part series on trade and how changes in policy might affect the local economy.

It's hard to say just how much of what is produced in Genesee County is exported overseas. There are several companies that manufacture products here and ship what they build to China, Europe, the Middle East, Mexico and, of course, Canada, including Liberty Pumps, Chapin and Graham.

There is no database, though, that tracks exports at a rural, county level.

What we can say with some certainty, however -- our county's biggest export is what is grown here on our farms.

Everything the Trump Administration is talking about related to trade has the potential to have a big impact on local farmers. 

According to Dean Norton, an Elba dairy farmer and former president of the New York Farm Bureau, Trump's tack toward protectionism has already had an impact. When Trump canceled U.S. participation in the Trans-Pacific Partnership, New York farmers lost about $100 million in potential new revenue, Norton said.

"People don't understand that about 25 percent of what is produced locally is exported farm product," Norton said. "Exports and imports generally have a positive effect on the bottom line when it comes to trade."

Collins said he understands that agriculture is important to his district and he promises to represent those interests in Washington.

"There are a lot of ag issues and for many people when we talk about trade they think about cars and widgets and not about ag," Collins said. "I can promise you, I will be a voice at the table. I can't promise outcomes, but I can make sure the issues are on the table."

While Walmart and Target shoppers might find some electronics, clothing, and housewares more expensive during a trade war, supermarkets may not be able to stock some of our favorite foods. Besides the crops that can't be grown domestically, such as bananas and cocoa beans (at least in quantities sufficient to meet demand), many other crops are available out of season because they are grown in other countries, such as blueberries, lemons, watermelons and strawberries. 

"Consumers demand strawberries 12 months out of the year," noted Maureen Torrey, co-owner of Torrey Farms, but the only way we get strawberries in winter, she noted, is to import them from South America, primarily Chile.  

We import tomatoes and avocados from Mexico and Canada. California grows avocados but not enough to meet the current demand for guacamole.  

"The demand has gone through the roof," Torrey said.

Our tomatoes used to come from Florida, Torrey said, but after NAFTA (North American Free Trade Agreement), much of that production shifted to our southern and northern neighbors.  

Asked if the United States could again produce tomatoes, Torrey said, "That goes hand-in-hand with the fact we don't have the labor anymore to grow these hand crops. There's a lot of factors that interact with these whole trade agreements."

Mexico is second only to Canada as foreign suppliers of food to U.S. consumers, much of it products that can be easily grown in America.

When the president talks about NAFTA (a deal he promised to renegotiate as soon as he took office, but has yet to act on) he's usually drawing his ire on Mexico, Trump and administration officials have indicated Canada need not worry about drastic changes to the trade deal, but local farmers have long-standing complaints about trade with Canada.

While you might think NAFTA would make it easier for WNY farmers to ship grain, dairy, and meat to our northern neighbors, the opposite is true, they say, yet the U.S. market is completely open to Canadian farmers. The Canadian government, they charge, even subsidizes shipments of agriculture products to Florida.

Norton said dairy farmers have been battling Canadian restrictions since 1996.  

Various Canadian agriculture programs provide price supports, import quotas and production caps on domestic dairies. Since most of these programs are provincial, rather than controlled by the Canadian federal government, the restrictions are beyond the reach of the World Trade Organization. U.S. dairy farmers are unable to file a complaint with the WTO.

"The dairy industry there doesn't want to compete with imports even though their dairy industry is dying," Norton said.

Trade is important to farmers because from $120 billion to $140 billion worth of the nation's agricultural output is shipped overseas, which is why farmers get very nervous about the idea of new trade barriers. 

Last year, all of CY Farms soybeans were sold overseas, said its CEO Craig Yunker, noting that trade is fundamentally important to agriculture because of the whole concept of comparative advantage. What one country grows well, another may not, so they're both better off trading with each other than trying to produce something that neither can do as well as a trading partner.

"A banana republic down there can't grow corn and we don't grow bananas," Yunker said.

Yunker agrees with Norton -- that it hurt U.S. farmers to pull out of the Trans-Pacific Partnership.

Trade deals do more than open markets, he said, they set rules, allowing companies to compete on a level playing field. The rules deal with government subsidies, health and labor regulations and environmental concerns.

"All of these things were setting rules for a trading block and we helped set the rules," Yunker said. "We were able to do that because those other countries wanted access to our markets. Now China will put a trading block together and now China will set the rules."

China was not part of TPP, but keeping the Chinese market open to U.S. ag products is very important to farmers. As the Chinese economy grows, so does Chinese food consumption. Higher standards of living means people eat more meat, so the Chinese not only need more grain to feed themselves, they need it to feed their farm animals.

"They buy such a large amount of grain, just the thought of them shutting down would send a panic through world markets," Norton said. "Their billion and a half people are increasing lifestyle consumption so it's important that we're going to want to be at the table to provide some of those products for them. If we're not, some other countries are going to be and they will have no qualms about replacing the United States. Trade is a very dog-eat-dog world."

Russia and China have been improving trade relations over the past couple of years and recent Russia has become the world's largest wheat exporter.

That's significant, with or without new trade barriers, because grains are commodities and commodity pricing is impervious to protectionism. The only thing protectionism can do on commodity markets is make things more expensive.

For many products people buy and sell, a number of factors can determine the price. Quality, service, unique features, brand loyalty and other factors affect what people are willing to pay. But some products, known as commodities, don't have those differentiating features going for them. It all comes down to supply and demand. The greater the supply, the lower the demand, and then the lower the price. When supply drops and demand goes up, prices go up.  Commodity traders actually make their living placing financial bets on the trends in prices for commodities, which includes corn, wheat and soybeans.

Farmers don't set the price on commodity products they sell. The market does. That means trade barriers, or a rise in the value of the dollar, can make it much harder for domestic farmers to sell their crops overseas.  

As an example of the impact global markets can have on grain prices, Norton pointed to the recent history of corn. A couple of summers ago, the Midwest suffered a huge drought, hurting corn farms in those states. In WNY, we had plenty of rain and bumper corn crops. Local farmers took advantage of the weather patterns and planted more corn, but we still don't produce enough here to shift the world market. Corn prices hit record highs and local farmers reap bigger profits.

Last year, worldwide corn supplies rebounded and New York was hit with drought conditions, meaning less corn was grown here. As a whole, the New York ag industry suffered a $1 billion loss in 2016, according to the New York Farm Bureau.

"We are affected by what happens in Argentina, Brazil, China, all those things affect us one way or the other," Norton said.

CHART: Corn prices, 2007-2016

Previously:

• Part 1: Introduction
• Part 2: Globalization
• Part 3: China and robots

Press release:

Twenty-five students from the Byron-Bergen Jr./Sr. High School were inducted as new members of the National Junior Honor Society (NJHS) on March 22. They proudly joined the 38 standing members of the school’s NJHS.

The NJHS program highlights the well-rounded students at Byron-Bergen. Inductees are selected based on their high standards of scholarship, citizenship, service, leadership and character. All members are required to demonstrate their achievements in each of these areas. The 2017 new members are:

• Seventh Grade: Jared Barnum, Rachel Best, Madison Burke, Caleb Carlson, Sadie Cook, Makenzie Eccleston, Grace Huhn, Brooke Jarkiewicz, Meghan Kendall, Madelynn Pimm, Elli Schelemanow, Grace Shepard, Alayna Streeter, Ella VanValkenburg, Alexandra Vurraro, Claire Williams, Corden Zimmerman;
• Eighth Grade: Zoey Chambry, Carli Kirkwood, Andrew Parnapy, Sarah Streeter, Devon Zinter;
• Ninth Grade: Kelsey Fuller, Mikaela Hubler, Miriam Tardy.

The evening began with a welcome from faculty advisor Ken Gropp, and NJHS Vice President Nathan Zwerka led the audience in the Pledge of Allegiance. The ceremony continued with opening remarks from Superintendent Mickey Edwards and Principal Patrick McGee. Students Cambria Kinkelaar and Siomara Caballero led the traditional candle lighting with help from Nick Baubie, Alex Brumsted, Amaya Gunther, Colby Leggo and Jillian Menzie.

NJHS President Abby Vurraro addressed the crowd and spoke about the importance of failure.

“It’s what you do after you fail that really counts,” she said.

The induction ceremony featured two guest speakers who were chosen by NJHS members: Byron-Bergen teachers Diana Walther and Laurence Tallman.

“Different is good,” Tallman said. “Our diversity is ultimately what unifies us.”

As part of the induction ceremony, each new inductee received a certificate and pin, and the distinct honor to be a part of the National Junior Honor Society. More than a million students participate in NJHS: https://www.njhs.us/. Membership not only recognizes students for their accomplishments but also challenges them to develop further through active involvement in school activities and community service.

Tyler Schiske, on the right with Chief Dewey Murrock, was named Pavilion's Firefighter of the Year, during the department's annual dinner at its Fire Hall on Saturday night.

The Pavilion Volunteer Fire Department's officers for 2017 are: Dewey Murrock, chief; John Weis, 1st assistant chief; Donald Roblee, 2nd assistant chief; Tyler Schiske, Paul Dougherty, Wayne Taylor, captains; Mike Wright and Chad Freeman, lieutenants; Doug Wright, fire police captain; Bill Kegler and Dick Park, safety officers; and Dougherty, Schiske and Taylor are training officers.

The social officers are: Nick Wright, president;Paul Dougherty, vice president; Bill Carrigan, treasurer; Kathy Wright, recording secretary; and Kelly Kraft, financial secretary.

China and robots

This is part three of an eight-part series on trade and how changes in policy might affect the local economy.

Times change, Congressman Chris Collins argues. He doesn't dispute that for the later half of the 20th century, a regime of trade agreements and more open trade worked well for the United States, but we no longer live in the same post-war world that forged those instruments of trade.

We face competition from China that presents a unique challenge to U.S. economic dominance, and automation is eating jobs the way tornadoes tear through trailer parks.

"We went from an agricultural economy to an industrial, production economy and now through automation, we have fewer jobs," Collins said.

We don't know the future, he said, but "where are these people going to work if we don't make stuff? We need to have opportunities that others don't have."

The American Dream (a term first coined by historian James Truslow Adams in 1931) is an ethos founded on the idea that we are a country that makes stuff.

We are builders. We are factories. We are smokestacks and train tracks and men with lunch buckets and lug wrenches. 

The perception that Trump campaigned on is that the American Dream ain't what it used to be. Economists disagree over whether that's true. While over the past 30 years a greater share of income earned has gone to the nation's richest 1 percent, there's evidence that suggests it's still possible for the poor and middle class to move up the economic ladder.

The balance between income inequality and economic mobility is a matter of debate. For those who perceive a problem, the question is who or what to blame.

Trump found ready targets in China and trade deficits.

"We can't continue to allow China to rape our country, and that's what they're doing," Trump said during his campaign. "It’s the greatest theft in the history of the world."

While campaign, Trump said the trade deficit with China was either $400 billion and $500 billion. For 2016, it was actually $347 billion.

Economists debate how much impact China has had on U.S. manufacturing jobs since the country of 1.4 billion people joined the World Trade Organization in 2001. On one hand, while the United States has lost five million manufacturing jobs since then, actual factory output has increased at the same time; however, the Economic Policy Institute reports that the rise of China as a global economic power has displaced 2.7 million workers, including 2.1 million in manufacturing. 

China may pose a different kind of challenge for the U.S. economy than we've faced before, but it isn't clear the Trump Administration has come up with a strategy beyond slapping tariffs on every Chinese import.

The big worry among economists is that Trump's rhetoric, let alone actual tariffs, will spark a trade war. The man Trump hired to oversee the National Trade Council, Peter Navarro, is regarded as being ideologically opposed to China.

Even though the local economy has few direct ties to China, how the country's trade policy goes with China will have an impact locally.

To the degree that trade with China matters in Genesee County, it matters more to consumers and farmers than manufacturers. For consumers, trade with China means money saved on gadgets and consumer products. For farmers, China is a big part of world consumption of food, especially grain, so even if local corn and soybeans are never shipped directly to China, the price farmers can get for these commodities is based on worldwide prices and the strength or weakness of the dollar. 

The manufacturers we interviewed said, for the most part, they don't trade much with China nor do products from China directly compete with their own products.

For Batavia-based Chapin Manufacturing Inc., the biggest worry is how China handles protection of intellectual property, according to CEO Jim Campbell.

"Individual companies in China ignore our U.S. patents so we have to defend them most vigorously," Campbell said. "We go head-to-head with China in the Pacific Rim area, mostly in Australia and New Zealand. China has a significant advantage in freight costs to these areas over us in Batavia."

Trade with China is minimal for Graham Corp., said Jeff Glajch, vice president and CFO for Graham Manufacturing in Batavia. There are some parts Graham imports from China, but it's not a significant piece of the business, he said.

If there were new trade barriers with China, it wouldn't have a major direct impact on Graham, he said.

"In the big basket of all the changes, I don’t think it would cause us significant harm," Glajch said.

Any new difficulty in trade with China might have a bigger impact on Liberty Pumps, but CEO Charlie Cook didn't express much concern, though he said it's still too soon to say what might be coming that will change foreign trade for his company. China has been an area of company growth, he said, with sales growth of about 12 percent, which is a bit higher than companywide growth.

When it comes to trade and China, one of the more interesting stories in local manufacturing is p.w. minor, a company with a 150-year local history that late in its history moved much of its production to China before nearly going out of business two years ago. Then Pete Zeliff and a partner bought the company's assets and Zeliff went to work repatriating that factory work to Batavia.

But the twist here is that one reason p.w. minor could start making all of its own shoes again is automation.  

And what Zeliff did isn't unique these days in American manufacturing. It's called "reshoring."

Three years ago, fewer than 100 companies were known to have reshored manufacturing, but it's been a growing trend. One of the more interesting recent examples was highlighted by CBS Evening News a couple of months ago -- a bicycle company that is owned by a Chinese billionaire.

Zeliff sees a future U.S. manufacturing sector that is large enough to accommodate a robust workforce, even if there are fewer jobs per square foot. Trade barriers will help make that happen, he said.

"We’ll still have jobs, more high-tech jobs to run and program and maintain these robots and things," Zeliff said. "We’ll have less low-tech jobs and more high-tech jobs."

That's a view of the future shared by Collins. If there are going to be fewer manufacturing jobs, all the more reason to make sure those jobs stay in the United States.

"Times do change," Collins said. "It's a different world we live in now."

GRAPHIC: The chart shows the decline in U.S. manufacturing jobs since the 1940s while production output has continued to increase. Economists say this trend is the result of machines replacing more and more manual labor. It is a trend that accelerated in the 21st century as computers came to play a greater role in manufacturing.

Previously:

• Part 1: Introduction
• Part 2: Globalization

According to a reader who contacted The Batavian, about a dozen employees at Batavia Downs had complaints about new scent defusers installed at the facility, but according to Mike Nolan, COO for Western OTB, only two employees were seen by doctors.

While the employees complained about the new machines, a connection between their symptoms and the machines hasn't been confirmed, he said.

Also, in response to the e-mail received by The Batavian, Batavia Downs is in compliance with regulations to have on hand material data safety sheets, he said.

Here's the full statement from Nolan:

Within the last week Batavia Downs installed a few scent air machines. They are widely used across the country in retail establishments. 

We did have a couple of employees complain of allergies during the week and went for medical treatment blaming the scent machines, no confirmation they were the source of the ailment at this time.

We do have MSDS sheets on site at the Downs and have offered them to the affected employees for consultation by their physicians.

We discontinued use over the weekend so the vendor can come on site Monday and make adjustments if necessary.

The goal is to create a great environment at our facility for Patrons.

Globalization

This is part two of an eight-part series on trade and how changes in policy might affect the local economy.

One of the more interesting characters President Donald J. Trump has brought into the White House is Stephen K. Bannon, a top advisor to Trump with the job title of Chief Strategist. 

Bannon is a former Navy officer, Wall Street financier, former chairman of Breitbart News, and a former Hollywood producer who derives some of his income from royalties on the TV series "Seinfeld." To his enemies, he is a white nationalist, a fascist, a Nazi, even though these are characterizations he rejects and the evidence to support the labels is suspect. He calls himself an "economic nationalist."

His epiphany came, he has said, during the 2008 financial crisis. His father lost $100,000 when he sold his AT&T stock (without consulting a financial advisor or anyone in his family). When Bannon observed the ability of Wall Street CEOs to walk away from the crisis unscathed while hardworking Americans such as his father were hurt, he was incensed. Bannon believed (and he's far from alone in this perception) that Wall Street tycoons perpetrated a fraud while profiting from the meltdown. 

The crisis set Bannon on the path of an economic ideology he believes will protect the working people of America from the elites of a globalized economy. When Bannon and Trump met, in many ways, they were soulmates. Without using the term, Trump was probably an economic nationalist before he decided to run for president.  

Trump doesn't call himself an economic nationalist. He just says, "We're going to put America first." That's an emotionally more powerful term that has resonated with voters.

If we're going to talk about trade over the next few days and understand how the Trump Administration's policies may change the economics of Genesee County, if not the entire world, it would be helpful to understand what Trump and Bannon believe and where that fits into the history of economics.

When Trump talks about putting America first, the message resonates with a subset of his supporters who are against globalization.

The word globalization means different things to different people. To nationalists, it seems to mean a process by which countries begin to surrender their sovereignty to international organizations such as the United Nations, World Trade Organization and the World Court. To most economists, it means the world developing more tightly coupled economic ties and becoming more interdependent through trade with no need to trample national sovereignty.

The anti-globalist believe countries can best protect their sovereignty by restricting trade. That approach is called protectionism.

Many economists think the whole idea of protectionism was smashed by Adam Smith, the Scotsman who published "The Wealth of Nations" in 1776. "The Wealth of Nations" in a real sense marked the birth of economics as a course of study. Until Smith's monumental work, how trade worked was viewed through a lens of thinkers known as mercantilists. For the mercantilists, trade was a zero-sum game -- for every winner, there was a loser, for one side of a trade to gain, the other said had to fall behind. For that reason, mercantilists believed that governments needed to plan the trade of their countries and if necessary raise barriers to trade to protect homegrown production.

Smith said that simply isn't true. Smith argued that to force people to make at home what could be made more cheaply in another country was a waste of resources because the people doing less productive work could better spend their time doing things that made a greater contribution to the local economy. 

It is the maxim of every prudent master of a family, never to attempt to make at home what it will cost him more to make than to buy. The tailor does not attempt to make his own shoes, but buys them of the shoemaker. The shoemaker does not attempt to make his own clothes, but employs a tailor. The farmer attempts to make neither the one nor the other, but employs those different artificers.

The best economy, according to Smith, is one where each person is free to maximize his own productivity. By laboring in one's own interest, Smith observed, people contribute to the greater public good though that is not their true intention. His famous phrase from this passage is "the invisible hand," or that which guides the whole economy toward greater good through a series of self-interested actions by individuals. 

That is the essence of the free market.

Economist David Ricardo would expand on this observation with his theory of comparative advantage. Ricardo argued that two nations benefit when each engaged in their greatest economic capacity and then trade the results of that output. Ricardo's example involves a bit of math, but basically if one country has an advantage over another in making both wine and cloth, but the greater advantage lies in wine, then the wine country should make wine and trade for cloth and the country weaker in both wine and cloth should make cloth and trade for wine. In this way, both countries are more productive together than each doing their own thing.

Comparative advantage comes right down to the county level and even the individual farm level, said Craig Yunker, CEO of CY Farms. If one farmer has better ground for raising cattle and another farmer has better land for grains, they would both be foolish to try to be in the cattle and grain business. They are better off putting most of their effort into cattle for one and grain for the other (even if they both do a little cattle or a little corn).

The same applies to international trade, Yunker said.

"There are factories that have been closed for 100 years," Yunker said. "They don't make buggy whips anymore. There are cars being made in Mexico, but the technology comes from the United States. There are probably more cars being sold worldwide because of the expansion of production and we all benefit."

The way Pete Zeliff sees it though is the United States has a lot of advantages that it can use to grow manufacturing regardless of what the rest of the world does. Zeliff, owner of p.w. minor and a member of the Genesee County Economic Development Center Board of Directors, points to our lower cost of chemicals and our lower cost of energy, especially since the birth of the shale gas industry. That will make the United States more competitive in manufacturing, he said.

"The price of natural gas will be below $4 for the next 30 years," Zeliff said. "That will make us the most competitive country in the world. We're energy independent with the lowest cost of energy in the world. We can source 85 percent (of inputs for manufacturing) right here. The rest of the world cannot."

Even with Smith pointing the way to the value of free trade, many world leaders couldn't shake the appeal of protectionist policies because the benefits of free trade are incrementally diffused over time and across populations while the occasional costs of free trade are more visible (see: The Fruits of Free Trade (pdf)).

The world got itself into a lot of trouble through protectionist policies in the early 20th century, with protectionism contributing to a worldwide depression and eventually a global war. That created a greater realization that developed nations needed to find ways to cooperate.

That led to The Bretton Woods Conference, held in 1944 in New Hampshire and attended by delegates from 44 Allied nations, and the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT), signed in 1947.

Bretton Woods led to the creation of the International Monetary Fund and of the organization that eventually became the World Bank (the late Barber Conable, Batavia's representative in Congress in the 1970s, became president of the World Bank in 1986). 

GATT governed trade among signatories until the creation of the World Trade Organization (WTO) in 1993.

The roots of these agreements were planted by events of the previous 40 years. The chaos that followed World War I was predicted by economist John Maynard Keynes in his book the "Economic Consequences of Peace." Keynes foretold the harsh consequences of the Paris Peace Conference on Germany -- predicting it would lead to future chaos.

After the Great War, America, along with other nations became much more protectionistic, making it much harder for Germany's economy to recover from the devastating consequences of the peace treaty. While protectionism here and abroard didn't cause the Great Depression, most economists agree that the Smoot–Hawley Tariff Act of 1930 only made matters worse, deepening what was then only a recession and prolonging the depression. 

It was with that background that Keynes and other economists who joined the conference at Bretton Woods sought to promote a more open global market for trade and the flow of currency. 

Bretton Woods and subsequent agreements helped bring greater political and economic stability to world, but these consensus organizations have also long been the targets of anti-globalists, such as the John Birch Society, founded in 1958.

Those views remained in the minority in the 1950s and 1960s, when the U.S. economy expanded at an average rate of 6 percent a year, and even in the 1970s and 1980s, anti-globalism was largely a fringe movement.  

It became more of a leftist and anarchist cause early in the 21st century.

Most people on the right were fine with global trade until a few years ago. Then there was the 2008 financial crisis hitting right at a time when China, which joined the WTO in 2001, was becoming a bigger economic power.

CHART: Gross Domestic Product (a measure of an economy's wealth) on a per-person basis for each country in the world, showing relative wealth and percentage of world population.

Previously:

• Part 1: Introduction

Press release:

Congressman Chris Collins (NY-27) today released the following statement regarding the American Health Care Act.

“I am extremely disappointed with today’s result,” Congressman Collins said. “This bill, while not perfect, was a solution that would have ended the Obamacare nightmare that Western New Yorkers have had to endure for too long.

"By increasing competition and giving people the power to make their own choices with their own health care, the American Health Care Act would have been a drastic improvement over the healthcare system Obamacare has left us with.

“Despite today’s result, this process has provided the opportunity to push for reforms vital to Western New York, specifically my amendment to force Albany to end its unfunded mandate on New York’s counties once and for all.

"I will continue advocating for that critical measure going forward and will remain resolute in my commitment to the taxpayers in my district.”

Introduction

This is part one of an eight-part series on trade and how changes in policy might affect the local economy.

At the top of his agenda, Donald J. Trump, told supporters while campaigning for president was that he would bring manufacturing jobs back to the United States.

"I am going to be the greatest jobs president that God ever created," Trump said at one campaign rally.

How Trump goes about reshaping American trade policy will likely have a profound effect not just on the whole United States but also on us in Genesee County as farmers, business owners, executives, employees, and families. As America's economy goes, so goes Genesee County, so over the past few of weeks, The Batavian has interviewed several local business leaders to see how Trump's campaign rhetoric and what has emerged as his administration's policy during his first 100 days in office are shaping their views of our shared economic future.

The views range from a full embrace of Trump's "Make America Great Again" bravado to fearful skepticism that trade barriers and protectionism will lead to trade wars and ultimately financial ruin.

"I think Trump is going to be good for us in business," said Pete Zeliff, owner of p.w. minor in Batavia. "He's going to start leveling the playing field. The way trade deals have been done, the playing field isn't level. It's really hard to compete with people overseas. Their labor is so much less, so naturally, things cost less money. What Trump has talked about, leveling the playing field makes total sense to me."

Jeff Glajch, vice president and CFO for Graham Manufacturing in Batavia, said that with Graham exporting more than it imports -- about 40 percent of its sales are overseas -- he thinks some of the policies contemplated by Trump and the Republicans in Congress will not only be great for Graham, but great for America and great for Batavia. Graham employees nearly 300 people locally and Glajch, who remembers more manufacturers here 30 years ago, would like to see a resurgence in local manufacturing. 

"We're encouraged by anything that favors U.S. production because I think we've been unfavored for quite a while," Glajch said. "It would be nice to see that shift back in our direction a little bit. It would be great as a country."

On the campaign trail, Trump spoke frequently of increasing tariffs, tearing up trade deals such as NAFTA (North American Free Trade Agreement) and the TPP (Trans-Pacific Partnership) and entering into a series of bilateral trade agreements (cutting deals with only one country at a time instead of deals that encompass several countries). To economists, that rhetoric sounds a lot like protectionism, and that's a dirty word to those who favor free trade.

Craig Yunker, CEO of CY Farms, said he favors free trade and is fearful of what Trump's disruption of international trade norms might do to the local and national economy. 

"The issue I have with people who talk about trade as a zero-sum game is that trade is a win-win game," Yunker said. "It's a very positive thing. It leads to higher incomes for both parties if done right."

"The issue," he added, "is that when we look at the percent of the pie we get rather than the size of the pie. We see a smaller piece of the pie, but the economy has expanded. The issue of the anti-trade mentality is to look at 'what is my share of the pie?' and the free-trade mentality and a more pro-growth mentality is 'let's grow a bigger pie.' "

Rep. Chris Collins, the first member of Congress to endorse Trump for president, said Trump's trade policies, and the policies he's pursuing in Congress with fellow Republicans, are unapologetically protectionist.

"Absolutely," he said.

Collins said he's concerned about the people who have lost factory jobs. They aren't the kind of people who are going to become rocket scientists, he said, or researchers. When they can't find a job, they become depressed, and too often they wind up in service-sector jobs at lower wages.

"We need to make stuff and give people an opportunity to make a good living who have a high school (diploma) or a community college degree," Collins said.

Top graphic: The graphic shows the number of people employed as a percentage of the U.S. population. As you can see, prior to the 2001 recession, the number hit 81.6 percent. It climbed back up to 80 percent prior to the 2008 recession and has been climbing for the past five years hitting 78 percent at the start of 2017.

A car has reportedly struck a pedestrian at the intersection of State Street and Alva Place, Batavia.

City fire and Mercy EMS responding.

The location is by Washington Towers, behind JCPenney.

UPDATE 3:54 p.m.: A pedestrian was struck by a car making a left-hand turn, but the person does not appear to be injured. Mercy medics are transporting the pedestrian to Strong Memorial Hospital for evaluation.

An 81-year-old man from Medina who was a passenger in a sedan that rammed under the trailer of a big rig died just before 5 p.m. yesterday, according to State Police.

Purcil E. Buzard suffered severe trauma in the accident, according to sources, and was flown by Mercy Flight to an area hospital where he succumbed to his injuries.

The accident was reported at about 9:30 a.m. yesterday at the intersection of Route 77 and Route 63 in Alabama. A tractor-trailer that was eastbound on Lewiston Road was making a right-hand turn onto southbound Alleghany Road. A Mercury sedan driven by Donna L. Wolter, 69, of Medina, allegedly failed to stop at the four-way stop. The car went under the trailer and its roof was sheared off and then hit a vacant building on the southwest corner of the intersection. It bounced off the building and hit a sedan stopped on Lewiston Road.

Wolter suffered head injuries.

There were no other injuries reported as a result of the accident.

      Oliver Thomas

If Oliver Thomas hadn't had a warrant for his arrest for five months, perhaps he could have made bail today, but since he didn't turn himself in and continued to hide from police, Judge Charles Zambito wasn't persuaded that bail was appropriate in his case.

Thomas was wanted for his alleged role in a home-invasion attack on residents in a Central Avenue residence in October. A second warrant was later issued because of his alleged failure to register a change of address as a convicted sex offender.

On the bail evaluation worksheet, which judges use to help determine somebody's flight risk, Thomas scored a negative four, even though he's a lifelong Batavia resident.

Thomas was in court today specifically for a review of his bail status following his arrest in Le Roy and original arraignment earlier this week.

Assistant District Attorney Melissa Cianfrini argued that even with his lifelong residency, Thomas has proven he's really pretty transient with lots of options for where he can go and where he can hide.

"He's a significant flight risk," Cianfrini said.

His assigned counsel, Brian Degnan, argued that because of his roots here, and that he obeyed all of the rules of his prior parole, he deserved reasonable bail, such as $10,000 or $20,000 bond.

Zambito agreed that Thomas is a flight risk and ordered him held without bail.

The case of a 29-year-old man's sexual affair with a 16-year-old Genesee County girl turned a lot today on speculation about just how hurt the girl was by the affair.

Daniel Brown is from Ontario County and has already been sentenced to two years in state prison on his conviction of crimes stemming from acts between him and the girl in that county and this morning's hearing was to determine if he should get an additional year in prison for crimes committed locally.

He pled guilty in December to criminal sexual act, 3rd.

Assistant District Attorney Kevin Finnell argued that Brown deserved the maximum available sentence available under the plea deal, three years in prison to be served concurrently with his Ontario County sentence, notwithstanding a statement by the victim's mother in a letter to court stating that her daughter suffered nothing more than a broken heart from the affair.

Finnell said that even by his own admission, Brown knows he hurt the girl in ways that will have ramifications for her later in life.

"He acknowledged in his letter to the court that he knows her brain is still developing and that this can affect her later in life," Finnell said. "He knew that."

According to Finnell, Brown struck up a friendship with the girl while she was still 15 and would meet with her, text with her and even showed up at school at least once to watch one of her school activities and when questioned about his presence, he said he was at the school that day to interview for a teaching job, which, Finnell said, was a lie.

Finnell said the physical affair started as shortly after the girl turned 16 and that Brown knew what he was doing wrong all along both legally and morally.  

According to Finnell, Brown would pick up the girl at school and never drive far from the school so they could get her back to the school quickly if her mother showed up, ostensibly to help hide the affair. 

The maximum sentence was appropriate, Finnell said, because the affair started in Genesee County and Brown continued to pursue the girl in Genesee County, even if they also spent time together in Ontario County.

Public Defender Jerry Ader argued that his client shouldn't get any additional prison time because he's already received sufficient punishment in Ontario County, which besides the two-year sentence, includes 10 years on parole and 30 years on the sex offender registry.

Both Finnell and Ader referred to a claim by Brown, who has held steady jobs since his military service and has no criminal record, that he succumbed to temptation after being dumped by his fiancée. Ader said that isn't an excuse, but just like any hardship faced by defendants, it is a circumstance worthy of the court's consideration.

Ader took issue with Finnell's characterization of the girl's eventual mental state, that she will suffer down the road. Ader said without a statement from the girl, and no way of predicting the future, there is no way to judge how the affair will affect the girl in the future.

Judge Charles Zambito said he felt sorry for Brown's personal difficulty, but it wasn't a mitigating circumstance in his mind, before handing down a three-year sentence.

"This was all about you getting what you wanted and what you thought you needed," Zambito said. "You never said you cared for her or even expressed that you cared for her. This looks like you used her for your own purposes."

As part of Ag Literacy Week, Assemblyman Steve Hawley was at John Kennedy School this morning to read to a group of students from a children's book about a grape farmer.

A car has gone off the road into the woods on Main Road in Pembroke.

No injuries reported.

The location near the Pembroke Fire Hall, 630 Main Road.

Pembroke fire and Indian Falls fire along with Mercy EMS dispatched.

A driver is reportedly uninjured but trapped in her car after a rollover accident in the area of 6790 East Bethany Le Roy Road, Le Roy.

The car is on its side.

Le Roy fire and Le Roy ambulance responding.